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04 Energy Insecurity
In trying to make sense of international relations today and in the future, we need to follow the oil. For years states such as the United States and countries in Western Europe have faced a number of challenges with respect to energy policy. First of all, these states have had to grapple with the need to reduce CO2 emissions and wean themselves off carbon fossils such as oil and coal, and shift to alternative energy options, such as renewable sources or the contentious option of nuclear power. Secondly, western states have sought to diversify their oil and gas imports, reducing dependency on the Middle East with supplies from countries such as Venezuela, Russia, Nigeria, Algeria and Central Asia.
However there are a number of geopolitical factors that make continued reliance on the Middle East an inevitable matter. Firstly, most of the future untapped reserves of oil and gas are found in the Middle East, and extraction is easier there than in most other regions.Though today other countries provide a significant proportion of the world's oil, going forward this will be less so as reserves are exhausted and as mature oil fields dry up. Secondly, alternatives to oil such as renewables and nuclear energy are either ineffective, too expensive or lack popular support, nor is energy conservation gaining sufficient traction.Thirdly, if nuclear energy is a serious option for Western states to address their energy security, then emerging countries in the developing world will also seek civilian nuclear power.These shifts to nuclear power will inevitably create tensions with the West, who will suspect that these civil programs will be cover for weapons development. Fourthly, countries like Venezuela, Russia, Nigeria and Central Asia are proving to be anything but reliable suppliers; as Russia's recent fracas with Ukraine showed, political tensions may restrict the flow of oil. Lastly, the overall demand for energy will substantially increase as countries like China and India grow substantially in the next decade and western consumers demand ever more energy. According to the Worldwatch Institute, by 2050 consumption of oil will have grown from the current 85 million barrels a day to 200 million barrels. "Few geologists believe that output will reach even half those levels before beginning to decline," claim the environmental group.
All in all the bottom line is that the West will remain addicted to the black stuff for the foreseeable future, with its reliance on the Muslim world therefore remaining overwhelming. With increasing anti-western feeling and the support for a greater role for Islam in the politics of the region, the Middle East will remain the region to watch for geostrategists.
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