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| Middle Eastern Proliferation: Reality or Myth? |
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Turkey
Contemporary relations between Turkey and Iran are still marked by a history of conflict and hostility – stretching back to the time of the Safavid dynasty. Despite improvements in relations during the 20th century, there have still been periods of strong hostility – stemming in part from Turkish accusations of Iran supporting Kurdish separatism. It could be surmised that Turkish distrust and the bad history between the two countries would be sufficient for Turkey to develop its own nuclear programme. No doubt there are voices in Turkey that are calling for an indigenous nuclear programme, but there are various other factors which need to be taken into consideration which would act as major constraints on such a decision.
Turkey's foreign policy options in the post-Cold War era remain highly dependant on European and American acceptance. Given the nature of this relationship, were Iran to go nuclear, Turkey is unlikely to begin its own nuclear programme, due to the potential damage to its relations with the West. Secondly, Turkey does not consider that she is the cause of Iran seeking to “nuclearise” in the first place. The closer that Turkey sticks to EU policy, the better position it will find itself in relation to accession talks. Entertaining the nuclear option would no doubt further stall Turkey’s European aspirations, if not end them all together. Turkey’s hopes of entering the EU will not just depend on a wholesale transformation in the economic and human rights fields, but also its foreign policy moves, especially how it would react to a nuclear Iran.
Therefore Turkey's long-lasting odyssey in search of EU accession – while at the same time balancing the security and military concerns of the US, Israel, and the EU – will act as a major check on Turkey. Turkey has been a member of NATO since 1952, which has acted as a linchpin of Turkish security since that time. Even after the Iranian revolution, this has remained the case, thus Turkey is unlikely to renege on this security arrangement via the acquisition of nuclear weapons. In addition, the new conservatives in Iran today seem extremely pragmatic rather than ideological, therefore the likelihood of Iran exporting the principles of the Iranian revolution seem a remote possibility. This fact will calm the nerves of Turkey’s secular elite.
Saudi Arabia
It is also unlikely that Saudi Arabia would seek a nuclear option in the face of a nuclear-armed Iran. Like Turkey, there are a number of policy constraints along that path and Saudi is more likely to revert to more stringent internal policies than attempt a tilt toward strategic or medium-range nuclear technology.
Ten to fifteen years ago, a nuclear Iran might have been a significant threat to Saudi Arabia, due to the ill treatment the Shi'a population in its Eastern province suffer. Although discrimination continues against the Shi’a in Saudi, the authorities have now opened dialogue with Shi’a leaders, and the election of 11 Shi’a candidates into municipal councils during 2004 has no doubt acted as a source of improving Iran-Saudi relations. In addition, the Shi’a in Saudi usually refer to Grand Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani in Iraq, who has a quietist attitude towards politics in comparison to Ayatollah Khameini in Iran. Therefore Iran is unlikely to have major influence among the Shi’a of Saudi; this will ease Saudi worries of Iranian encouragement of internal Shi’a uprisings. The signing of the 2001 Iran-Saudi security agreement is another indication of improving relations and as a result Iran cannot be considered an imminent threat to Saudi security. If there was a military threat from Iran, there is no doubt that a quick response would come from the West, especially the US which has depended on Saudi oil for decades. Saudi is an important state for the US and any attack on Saudi would destabilise the whole Persian Gulf, sharply affecting the world’s supply of oil. This would be disastrous for Western economies, making US intervention to counteract an Iranian military threat inevitable.
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