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| Israel: Heading for a Strategic Precipice |
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It was this war of attrition and the heavy loss of casualties that became the key driver of Israel’s precipitous withdrawal from Lebanon, the image of Israeli soldiers fleeing for their lives remains etched in the memory. For some the Lebanese withdrawal has become an act of appeasement and this for them has worsened with Sharon’s sacrifice of Jewish settlers in the Gaza strip. However most Israelis supported the Lebanese retreat due to the numbers of casualties and most agree with Sharon on his withdrawal plan form Gaza. Yet ignoring the strategic reasons behind Lebanon and Gaza, many amongst the Palestinians and others have perceived that Israel is unable to sustain the long-term costs of her occupation. She has now given up Sinai, Lebanon and Gaza, all without a final comprehensive peace agreement with the Palestinians. Some may view this as wishful thinking on the Palestinians part, but Israelis are even echoing this view. In a recent interview, former Prime Minister Barak predicted the Palestinians would view the Israeli withdrawal as proof they won and that Sharon capitulated. It would be an impetus to continue fighting, He states in an interview with Haaretz ‘Three years ago, he (Sharon) said that (the isolated Gaza Strip settlements of) Netsarim and Kfar Darom are like (Israel's kibbutz) Negba and Tel Aviv. What happened since then? Terrorism.’
In this context as Barak states withdrawal from Gaza will further embolden those who believe that the current peace plan being offered by the international community is not in the long term interests of the Palestinian people. While future trends aversely affect Israel they believe a strategy akin to Salahadeen’s waiting game while the Crusaders occupied Jerusalem (while hitting Israel asymmetrically) in the interim is the better longer term option. Only time will tell the effectiveness of such a strategy, but what is clear from history whether we consider the French occupation of Algeria or the British occupation of America, is that eventually the occupiers when facing unsustainable casualties eventually loses the will to sustain a long term presence.
Transformation in the Muslim World
If the first two trends were not sufficiently challenging for Israel, there are also three major trends occurring in the Muslim world which will significantly influence the state of Israel. Firstly while Israel like most of western Europe has an ageing population, the Muslim world enjoys a healthy birth rate and this gulf will become more pronounced as time carries on. This in itself may not be a significant issue, but allied with the second point of greater radicalisation and animosity towards Israel and her chief patron the US, this demographic shift is important. According to most surveys, animosity is most concentrated within the younger sections of population, increasingly radicalised by what they have witnessed in the last few years in Palestine, Iraq and Afghanistan. It is also important to note that the new generation do not have the psychological scars of those before them who faced and often lost in wars such as 1948, 1967 and 1973. It is also a generation that has grown up seeing images of brutality against Muslims on their television sets and who squarely point the finger of blame at Israel and the US.
The other issue that most commentators understate is the concept and importance of Ummah within the Muslim world. Most western analysts view the issue as merely an Israeli-Palestinian issue or at most an Israeli-Arab problem. If we just looked at this from a purely land or racial point of view then this may be correct, however the dispute for most Muslims is not one primarily driven by nationalism or land. For the large majority of Muslims, Palestine is an issue that transcends a race, suffering, or even a patch of land; rather it should be viewed through the prism of their faith. Palestine is considered sacred land, the site of the third holiest shrine and the location of the first place Muslims prayed towards and is referred to in both the Qur'an and the Ahadith in revered terms. Consequently, the issue of Palestine uniquely combines the troika of mass Muslim suffering, occupation and land which is considered sacred. This coupled with mass communication and satellite media beaming the pictures of daily brutality into people's homes means that Israel faces not just opposition by 3.6 million Palestinians but the bulk of the 1.5 billion Muslims in the world who contrary to most commentators remain important stakeholders in the dispute. However we must cite a word of caution, in that greater resonance of Ummah should not be overstated nor may it result in any serious threat to Israel. However greater radicalisation in the Muslim world should also not be understated especially when coupled with two other trends.
Firstly it is increasingly likely that as the centre of gravity shifts in the Muslim world to a more Islamic model of governance, an entity such as the Caliphate will be established; this will have profound implications for Israel. Such a state will no longer be bound by the western consensus of the Roadmap (which as reported in our last issue is overwhelmingly rejected by Muslims) and nor will it want to confine itself to the boundaries of a nation state. Lastly it would consider itself duty bound to use all means within its disposal to alleviate the suffering of its co-religionists in Palestine and elsewhere. The National Intelligence Centre in their 2020 report for the CIA published in early 2005 predicted a rise of such a pan-national caliphate (see last issue) resulting from the ashes of the current regimes. Efraim Halevy the former chief of Mossad and the current National Security advisor to Ariel Sharon points specifically to the weakness of regimes such as Saudi Arabia in a recent article titled ‘The coming Pax Americana’
Few observers of the Middle East scene are actually taking a good hard look at the situation in Saudi Arabia and examining coolly the terrifying scenarios, one of which might ensue. Some believe that there is a real danger that extremist religious figures will seize power in Saudi Arabia and establish an "Al-Qaida state" in Riyadh. Others note that the national identification of large numbers of the country's population with the Saudi entity is feeble and that their main attachment is tribal or local-regional. Thus, a revolutionary situation might cause the disintegration of the state and the creation of parallel regimes in various regions of the kingdom. In a visit to the United States two weeks ago, I was told by several well-informed observers that should one of the more severe scenarios come to pass, the United States will have no choice but to deepen its presence in the Middle East. To that end, it will have to renew the draft, to ensure that there are enough forces to deal with developing situations in countries like Saudi Arabia.
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