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| Israel: Heading for a Strategic Precipice |
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Hence when discussion gets around to the topic of demography, what Israelis really mean is their deep concern of becoming a minority in land they believe to be their God given right. The figures are stark; according to official census figures there are now 5.2m Jews and 1.5m non-Jews in the Israeli state with approximately another 3.6m Arabs in the West Bank and Gaza. Though Israeli Arabs form 20% of the total population, according to commentators 31% of first grade Israeli schoolchildren are now Arabs. Since 1948 Israel has in theory provided equal rights to all its citizens but not accepted their national rights as a group, as the population of Arabs grow this policy will not be sustainable in the long term. No wonder the Palestinian ‘womb’ has replaced the Palestinian ‘gun’ as the key threat in the minds of prominent Israeli commentators evidenced by a recent poll conducted by Haifa University which found 64% of Israeli Jews want the Israeli state to encourage Israeli Arabs to emigrate. Many Israelis privately believe and fear that if the Palestinians were smart they would be in no rush to reach a settlement. As Susser states ‘If they (the Palestinians) could hang in long enough they may be able to have it all, in one state.’ There is now evidence that even the right within Israeli politics have understood the changing demographic reality and this new realisation forms the key rationale behind Prime Minister Sharon’s unilateral withdrawal from the Gaza Strip as well as the building of a separation barrier between Israel and the West Bank. Despite the obvious implications and controversy of a unilateral withdrawal from Gaza and the dissolution of the Jewish settlements based there, Sharon has defended his plan as ‘good for Israel.’ In an annual policy speech in December 2004 he said: ‘The disengagement acknowledges explicitly, courageously and sincerely, the demographic reality on the ground.’ Other measures such as the prohibition of Palestinians becoming Israeli citizens by marriage have now been enacted ostensibly for security reasons but for all intents and purposes to ensure no further adverse shift in the demographics. As Sharon said ‘Israel’s Jewishness must be preserved and the issue here is Israel’s existence.’ Other more controversial measures such as expelling illegal Palestinian residents across the West Bank barrier, trading Arab populated land within Israel in return for West Bank settlements, encouraging more Jewish immigration and finally easing conversions to Judaism despite the latter’s opposition by the Rabbinic establishment are also being considered and are no longer taboos within Israeli society.
Though some have questioned the underlying statistics behind the demographic time bomb, these have been mostly confined to right wingers in the United States who believe Sharon’s Gaza withdrawal following on from the withdrawal of Lebanon is an act of appeasement. However more and more commentators are now arguing that Israel is failing to face the fundamental facts on the ground and partial options such as those mentioned above are no more than the politics of the bandage. As Aluf Benn a prominent journalist on the Israeli daily Haaretz states concerning the options being considered, states ‘These are hardly more than permanent pain relievers. They will not spare Israel from the compelling need to face – sooner rather than later- crucial questions about its identity, its borders and its treatment of its non-Jewish citizens. Otherwise, demography will decide by itself.’
Palestinian Opposition
It is clear that despite 57 years having passed, that Israelis and Palestinians are as far apart not just on the specifics of any future settlement but on the historical narrative. For Jews, Israel was a culmination of a promised nirvana created from amongst the ashes of Auschwitz and Belsen, from the grotesque anti-Semitism of not just Germany but the whole of Europe. Israel was to be a new state which promised hope and a new beginning for the Jewish people, a chance to relive the prophecies of old and a return to the biblical Promised Land. In that sense Israel has for Jews become the symbol and key emblem of the long suffering historical narrative of the Jewish people. However this is not how the Palestinians view the last 57 years; for them Israel is nothing more an imposed occupation from abroad, characterised by brutal governance, stolen homes and the mass expulsion of their citizens. They believe that the collective guilt and shame of the European nations has been instrumental in their support for Israel. For Jews, Israel was a war of liberation and a huge cathartic experience, for Palestinians and more broadly Muslims it is considered a nakba, a calamity, a dagger in the heart of national existence, an affront to their deeply held religious convictions. The reluctance of the Palestinians to make peace is not as some believe to be rooted in rabid anti-Semitism, but because they believe occupation in principle has to be resisted and that any appeasement showed towards the occupier propagates a sense of weakness inevitably giving a green light to further aggression in the future. As Ben-Gurion perceptively asserted
“If I were an Arab leader I would never accept the existence of Israel. This is only natural. We took their land. True, God promised it to us, but what does it matter to them? There was anti-Semitism, the Nazis, Hitler, Auschwitz, but was it their fault? They only see one thing: we came and took their land.” It is through this political prism that the violence of the last 15 years should be seen. Abandoned by the pro-western Arab tyrants and kings, Palestinians have perceived that despite their military weakness what is now on the table with the Roadmap is neither acceptable nor just. The use of force by Palestinians has had mixed tangible results, many have argued that it has actually been counterproductive and ineffective (as well as morally reprehensible), but few can deny that Israel has been materially impacted by the chronic violence incurred on it. The impact on Israel’s economy has been significant, the huge diversion of resources to law enforcement and the military and the material impact of each life lost is much more pronounced when the Jewish population of Israel is only around 5m. Indeed every time Israel loses 50 of its citizens, it loses the equivalent of what the United States lost on September 11 2001. Using this basis, it is clear that Israel has suffered cataclysmic casualties in its attempts to pacify the Palestinian population and cannot continue to do so indefinitely.
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