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| Reviewing UN Reform and US Intelligence Forecasts |
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The scenario recounts the struggles of the Caliph in trying to replace the autocratic regimes in the Muslim world with the Caliphate - the Caliph's temporal authority over a land and its people. While pockets of support do emerge, the various regimes remain in place with the closure of the scenario.
Following the depiction of the scenario, the report goes on to outline certain lessons learned from the exercise:
- A Caliphate would not have to be entirely successful for it to present a serious challenge to the existing international order.
- The IT revolution is likely to amplify the clash between the Western and Muslim worlds.
- The appeal of a Caliphate among Muslims would vary from region to region, suggesting Western countries adopt a differentiated approach to counter it.
- The proclamation of a Caliphate would not lessen the likelihood of terrorism.
The NIC points out unequivocally that this elaborate scenario does not represent the views of the US government, reiterating the fact that the NIC functions as a think tank where policy is debated and discussed. While the administration may be immersed in the implementation of policies for pressing issues, examining the possible international situation 15 years into the future gives the administration a basis for policy planning designed to yield results in the long term.
The report reveals that, at the highest levels of policy planning in the US, preparation is being made for the probable emergence of a state based on Islam as its political creed. There is also acknowledgement that within the Muslim Ummah (global community) there is a broad-based ideological movement seeking the return of the Islamic Caliphate. The report explicitly states that 'Radical Islam will have a significant global impact… rallying disparate ethnic and national groups and perhaps even creating an authority that transcends national boundaries.' There are today a number of groups calling for the re-establishment of the Caliphate. With time, such groups will eventually establish a state that will make Islamic politics a reality on the world stage.
Although the report does address some salient aspects of political Islam, it also makes a number of observations that are at odds with the reality. The Caliphate, according to the report, would emerge around a Caliph who is proclaimed and gains widespread support; thereafter he would assume practical authority over a particular land.
This scenario is both unprecedented and extremely unlikely.
In Islamic jurisprudence, the concept of Caliphate is a contract between the ruler and the ruled. The contract stipulates that those in authority rule and adjudicate according to the precepts of the Islamic Shari'ah exclusively, while the citizenry are obliged to obey the decisions of the Caliph as long as these opinions are soundly based on Islamic legislation. The judiciary monitor scrutinises the legitimacy of the Caliph's decisions, to assess whether his legislation remains within the bounds of Shari'ah law. Very clearly, the Caliph must have practical, material authority over a specific land, in order to have the power to fulfil his mandate of office.
Declaring a Caliph without a Caliphate contradicts the basis of this contract, thus violating the Islamic Shari'ah Also, Muslims at large would not accept such a self-declared Caliph, who in effect is a shepherd without a flock.
There is no precedent in Islamic history or law for such a development.
Also, though it is true to say that views vary within political Islam from political and ideological work to militancy, the report does not accurately address the consequences of such variance upon the revival of the Caliphate. In reality, terrorism is a destructive force, not a constructive and coherent method for change and political violence ruptures institutions and creates a security vacuum in society. Constructive political change requires that society settles upon an idea that is both specific in its definition and parameters, while comprehensive in its applicability. If a Caliphate emerges in the Muslim world, it will not be the result of a confluence of contradictory Islamic forces uniting behind a personality. Rather, it will be through normalising the direction of political Islam upon a constructive political method towards the goal of reviving the Caliphate. Reactive methods that use material force to undermine authority, having failed continually to bring about the desired change, will have to be abandoned for such change to occur.
The Caliphate is an ideological entity; its success or failure depends upon the coherent application of its ideology through institutions. That, in turn, is dependent upon the widespread acceptance of its ideology amongst all sectors of society.
Conclusion
'Mapping the Global Future' is an insightful, predictive analysis of how current trends may shape the world 15 years into the future especially with respect to the Caliphate. It believes part of the appeal of radical Islam involves its call for a return by Muslims to earlier roots when Islamic civilisation was at the forefront of global change. This coupled with the increasing importance of religious identity in how people define themselves going forward makes for a powerful combination. However, the proposed scenario does not consider some fundamental aspects of the nature of Islam and the nature of the political Islamic movement in the Muslim world currently.
In actuality, the Caliphate is a political entity that will arise from the unification of political opinion regarding it in the Muslim world, not from the varying and often oppositional views of the Islamic movement generally. As a state, the Caliphate would not emerge around a declared Caliph; rather the Caliphate would establish its authority over a particular land at the outset. It would need to project political, military, economic and ideological power in the manner a state must in the current international situation, both for its survival and the promulgation of its world-view. To suggest otherwise reflects a failure to grasp how political movements gain the momentum to successfully translate their ideas into existent political systems.
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