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| Reviewing UN Reform and US Intelligence Forecasts |
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Firstly, a fundamental shift in the values and political philosophies that drive foreign policy decisions is needed; a significant shift away from utility, nationalism, economic and political neo-imperialism is required. Secondly, any association of nations will have limited mileage exactly because competing national agendas have been the cause of so many conflicts and disagreements, but if there is to be any voluntary association it must not enshrine the domination of some countries over others, it must deal with all states on equal terms and must not have an ideological bias. Thirdly, it should be through moral pressure that nations are encouraged to abide by the terms of their agreements, not the legal straitjacket of international law. The concept of international law and the threat of force in its name have led to many an argument over who makes, interprets and enforces the law; who decides when it is enforced and according to which value system its framework is constructed. Article 38 of the Statute of the International Court of Justice, for example, which deals with the sources of international law states as one source: “The general principles of law recognised by civilised nations” - a reference to legal systems in Europe globally applied through the advent of colonisation; statutes which embed institutional advantage afforded to some countries and value systems. Even if these points are meant only as markers for the basis of an alternative, they are certainly not a panacea and will not be without their own weaknesses and shortcomings, nor can one claim they will end all war and conflict. Importantly, however, they seek to address some of the principal flaws and encourage options outside of an international system that has rarely benefited the world’s weaker countries. Any change will not emerge on its own, particularly in the current international climate, without a catalyst. The emergence of an alternative political model in the Caliphate system may be one such catalyst directed by a fundamentally different philosophy in international relations, the prospect of which - as the National Intelligence Council of the CIA too believes – may arise in the not too distant future.
A New Caliphate?
The US National Intelligence Council has published a report following its 'Global Vision 2020' project, entitled "Mapping the Global Future." The report sets out four likely scenarios the world may face in 2020, including one entitled A New Caliphate. Outlining how a Caliphate may re-emerge in the near future, the report proposes that the appeal of radical Islam today revolves around its call for a return by Muslims to earlier roots, when Islamic civilisation was at the forefront of global change in the form of the Caliphate state. The proposed scenario, however, neglects to consider some fundamental aspects of the nature of Islam and the nature of the political Islamic movement in the Muslim world currently.
In December 2004, the US National Intelligence Council (NIC) published a report arising from its 'Global Vision 2020' project, entitled "Mapping the Global Future." The National Intelligence Council (NIC) is the American Intelligence Community's centre for midterm and long-term strategic thinking. The project examined possible directions the world may take in the year 2020. This was the third such project undertaken by the NIC in the last seven years, following the Global Vision 2010 and Global Vision 2015 seminars held in November 1997 and December 2000 respectively.
The NIC is a centre of strategic thinking within the US Government, reporting to the Director of Central Intelligence. It provides the President and senior policymakers with analyses of foreign policy issues, ranging from current developments to "over the horizon" predictions of broader trends in the world at large.
"Mapping the Global Future" sets out four likely scenarios the world may face in 2020: Pax Americana, Davos World, Cycle of Fear and A New Caliphate.
Pax Americana
This scenario examines how US predominance may survive radical changes to the international situation. Washington remains a pivot for international politics, while US-European cooperation is renewed, including over the Middle East. There are new security arrangements in Asia, but the United States remains the principal guarantor of security. The scenario also suggests that Washington has to struggle to assert leadership in an increasingly diverse, complex, and fast-paced world.
Davos World
Robust economic growth may alter the shape of globalisation giving it a more non-Western face. In this scenario, the Asian giants as well as other developing states continue to outpace most "Western" economies. Asia's huge, consumer-driven domestic markets become a major focus for global business and technology. Although benefiting from energy price increases, the Middle East lags behind and threatens the future of globalisation.
Cycle of Fear
If proliferation concerns increase to the point that large-scale intrusive security measures are taken, proliferators -such as illegal arms merchants - might find it increasingly hard to operate. However, with the spread of WMD, more countries could be expected to arm themselves for their own protection.
The New Caliphate
This scenario envisions the sudden emergence of a Caliph. Fuelled by a global Islamic movement, the Caliph advances a powerful counter ideology in the shape of radical Islam. Untainted by the killing of innocent civilians through acts of terrorism, the new Caliph quickly comes to represent both the temporal and spiritual aspects of Islam. All this is depicted in the form of a hypothetical letter from a fictional grandson of Bin Ladin to a family relative in 2020. According to the letter, the Caliph is supported widely throughout the world, gaining backing in the West from opponents of globalisation, but he by no means has the support of the entire global Muslim community. Members of the wealthy elite prepare to leave the Muslim world for the West. The Caliph faces fundamental challenges that threaten the successful establishment of the Caliphate, such as violent opposition from Iran and a resumption of the age old Shia-Sunni struggle.
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