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| China: Pretender or Contender? |
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Chinese foreign policy
Engagement
As tensions around North Korea's nuclear capability intensified, China, long reticent on matters of foreign policy, stepped into the fray, sending high-level envoys to Pyongyang, and shifting troops around the Sino-Korean border. It was China that arranged the first tripartite talks held in Beijing in April 2002 and also the complicated Six Party talks. These moves have shown that China has decided to try and play the leading statesman, even where there is substantial American involvement.
Collectively, these initiatives represented a stark departure from more than a decade of Chinese passivity. And they signal a larger transformation. In recent years, China has begun to take a less confrontational, more sophisticated, more confident approach toward regional and global affairs. In contrast to a decade ago, the world's most populous country now largely works within the international system. It has embraced much of the current constellation of international institutions, rules, and norms as a means to promote its interests.
The changes may have been slow and subtle, to be sure, but their significance is huge. And their implications will be critical for China's relations with the United States and any future contending power bases. After all, not only does China now accept many prevailing international rules and institutions; it is also becoming a much more capable and adept player of the diplomatic game. But these developments have a very focused objective. As China expands its influence and refines its diplomacy, it will also get better at protecting its own interests, when they conflict with those of any other major power.
The more recent transformation began in the early 1990s, with Beijing's drive to expand its bilateral links. In the 1990s, China normalised or established diplomatic relations with 18 countries. Then, it began to build on these new relationships, establishing various levels of "partnership" to facilitate economic and security coordination and to offset the United States' system of regional alliances. China also moved to resolve a number of territorial disputes that had historically caused tension with its neighbours. China has settled border conflicts with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Russia and Tajikistan and has sometimes done so on less than advantageous terms. As a result, China's long land border, site of many of the country's major wars, has never been more secure.
Taiwan
There is no question that the Chinese have a deep-seated desire to bring Taiwan back under its authority. The recently ratified Anti-Secession bill is a major signal of this. Various commentaries have recently appeared in the Chinese press indicating that a major compromise on the issue of Taiwan or the 'One China' policy will bring about the fall of the whole Chinese apparatus.12
The US on its part has maintained the One China policy, based on the three Joint Communiqués and the Taiwan Relations Act. This approach, coupled with their forward-deployed forces in the region, has helped create a sustained US presence along the Straits of the China Sea separating China and Taiwan.
Taiwan -- long China's greatest security challenge and most sensitive foreign policy issue -- reveals China's growing surefootedness. From the mid-1990s to early 2001, China's policies on cross-strait relations were insecure and reactive. China focused more on coercion to prevent independence than it did on encouraging reunification or reducing tension. Over the subsequent years, China finally seems to have traded belligerence and coercive tactics for patience and deliberation. Beijing thus has abandoned its attempt to create a rough schedule for reunification and has toned down its threats of military force. Instead, it now seems much more interested in seducing Taiwan with economic opportunities and applying the Hong Kong model. The mistake here would be to think that the gravity of the issue has somehow been downgraded. A more nuanced understanding would perceive Chinese diplomacy that threatens at the right time and seduces at the right time.
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